The upper stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is on a predicted collision course with the moon, set to strike the lunar surface on 5 August at an astounding speed exceeding 5,400 mph. This unexpected event, resulting from past space missions, is likely to create a new crater near the well-known Einstein Crater.
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The Falcon 9 rocket component, which has been in a stable orbit around Earth since its launch in January 2025 to deliver Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lunar lander, is expected to crash into the near side of the moon—the side that is consistently visible from Earth. Due to the moon’s lack of atmosphere, the upper stage will not disintegrate upon entering the lunar environment but will make a direct impact.
Astronomer Bill Gray, who has been observing this rocket stage’s trajectory, calculated that it will impact the moon at approximately 2:34 AM ET. This estimate comes from detailed telescope observations and analyses of its orbital path. Gray, who collaborates on tracking near-Earth objects through his Project Pluto software, has contributed to a study examining the implications of this impending collision alongside a team of international researchers.
Lead author of the study, Benjamin Fernando, a postdoctoral researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, expressed anticipation for the impact’s results. He explained that the collision may not only vaporise the rocket’s upper stage but could also produce a visible flash, along with a plume of ejecta consisting of lunar dust and regolith, creating a fresh crater on the moon’s surface.
The Falcon 9 rocket, designed to be reusable, stands at nearly 230 feet tall and boasts the capability of transporting around 50,000 lbs of cargo into orbit. Since its inception in 2010, it has become a cornerstone of SpaceX’s operations, launching numerous missions from California and Florida to deliver various payloads, including the company’s Starlink satellites to provide global internet coverage.
Additionally, the impact of the Falcon 9 rocket stage may generate dust that could be observable from Earth, offering scientists a unique opportunity to study the event remotely. Such phenomena are particularly interesting to astronomers and lunar researchers, as the moon’s surface rarely undergoes significant alterations.
As one of the most frequently launched two-stage rockets globally, the Falcon 9 has successfully transported astronauts aboard the Crew Dragon capsule to the International Space Station, enhancing human access to space. Alongside the Falcon 9, SpaceX is currently developing the Starship rocket, which is poised to become the most potent launch vehicle ever created, with aims to conduct future lunar landings and potentially even missions to Mars.
While the moon has been a site of human exploration in the past, such events as the impending collision of the Falcon 9’s upper stage highlight ongoing interactions between human technology and celestial bodies. These impactful occurrences remind the scientific community and the public of the ever-evolving relationship humanity has with space.
As the countdown to the impact on 5 August continues, observers from around the world, including researchers and amateur astronomers, will be watching closely to see whether this event contributes new data to the scientific understanding of both the moon and the impacts from man-made objects.