Turkey Prices Expected to Rise as U.S. Turkey Population Declines
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In recent news, families planning their Thanksgiving spreads are facing the prospect of higher turkey prices due to a significant decrease in the U.S. turkey population. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) has reported that the number of turkeys in the U.S. has dropped to an estimated 195 million birds in 2025, the lowest level seen in nearly 40 years. This marks a 3% decrease from the previous year and a significant decline of around 36% from the peak number of turkeys raised in 1996.
The decline in the U.S. turkey population can be attributed to several factors, with one major cause being the outbreak of avian diseases such as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Since 2022, HPAI has affected close to 18.7 million turkeys, accounting for approximately 10% of birds impacted by the outbreak across different poultry species. The latest reports indicate that in 2025 alone, about 2.2 million turkeys have already been affected by this disease.
Another contributing factor to the decrease in the turkey population is the presence of Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV), a viral respiratory disease that spreads rapidly among flocks. The National Turkey Federation estimates that 60% to 80% of turkey flocks were infected with AMPV in 2024, leading to reduced production levels. While AMPV may not be as fatal as HPAI, it hampers production by affecting egg sets and replenishment rates within turkey flocks.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a decrease in turkey production for 2025, with an estimated 4.84 billion pounds, down 5% from the previous year. As a result of the declining turkey population and production levels, wholesale turkey prices are on the rise. The USDA forecasted a national average wholesale price of $1.32 per pound for a frozen whole hen in 2025, a significant increase from the previous year.
Despite the tightening supply and rising prices, industry experts do not anticipate a major turkey shortage for the upcoming holiday season. While consumers may experience higher retail prices when purchasing turkeys for Thanksgiving, they should still be able to find the birds available for purchase. The AFBF reassures that the production challenges faced by the turkey industry should not severely impact consumers’ access to turkeys during the holidays.
In conclusion, the decrease in the U.S. turkey population has led to a rise in wholesale turkey prices, with families likely to pay more for their Thanksgiving dinners. Avian diseases like HPAI and AMPV have contributed to the decline in turkey numbers and production levels. While consumers may face increased costs when buying turkeys, there is no need to panic about a shortage for the holiday season. As the industry continues to navigate these challenges, it remains essential for consumers to plan ahead and be prepared for potentially higher turkey prices this Thanksgiving.