Yes, Turbulence on Planes Has Gotten Worse — Here’s Why

For the past few years, air travel has become increasingly turbulent, leaving passengers and airlines on edge. A study published in 2023 by the American Geophysical Union revealed that the skies are now 55% bumpier compared to 40 years ago. This rise in turbulence has been linked to climate change, with warmer air from increased carbon dioxide emissions causing stronger wind shear in jet streams. As a result, clear-air turbulence (CAT), a particularly dangerous type, is predicted to become more common in the future.

Mark Prosser, a meteorologist at the University of Reading in England, has highlighted the urgent need for airlines to address this growing issue. Managing increased turbulence has become crucial as it not only poses risks to passengers and flight attendants but also results in substantial costs to the airline industry. In the United States alone, dealing with turbulence amounts to an annual expenditure of $150 to $500 million.

Recent incidents have underscored the severity of the situation. In a harrowing experience on an American Airlines flight, extreme turbulence left five individuals hospitalized, including a man who was rendered unconscious and a flight attendant who suffered burns from spilled hot water. Another alarming incident involved a Ryanair flight bound for Milan, where heavy turbulence resulted in injuries to eight individuals, including a 2-year-old.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has been actively monitoring turbulence-related injuries. Between 2009 and 2023, a total of 40 passengers and 166 airline crew members reported serious injuries due to turbulence. These injuries ranged from bone fractures to severe burns, necessitating hospitalization for more than 48 hours. As a response to these incidents, the NTSB has urged the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enforce stricter safety measures, particularly when flying near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet.

Efforts are underway to tackle the escalating turbulence crisis. Researchers are exploring the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict and mitigate turbulence during flights. Ricardo Vinuesa, a specialist in fluid mechanics and AI at KTH Royal Institute of Technology, has developed an AI system that simulates airflow over aircraft wings. By leveraging AI technology, experts hope to enhance safety measures and enhance the predictability of turbulent air movements.

Despite the challenges posed by worsening turbulence, the aviation industry remains committed to ensuring the safety and comfort of passengers. By adopting innovative solutions and embracing technological advancements, airlines strive to navigate through turbulent skies with resilience and preparedness. As the world continues to grapple with the impacts of climate change, addressing the root causes of increased turbulence remains essential to safeguarding the future of air travel.